The Daily Dose – FanDuel
By Bryan Sweet, DFW Senior Writer and Co-Owner, @FantasyFreakDFW
Welcome to your DFS Daily Dose. If you’re new to the scene, I suggest you read this post to get a general overview of what we’re going to be talking about in this article every week. Once you’ve finished getting caught up, rejoin us as we look back at the week that was and also for some strategy for taking down both cash games and GPPs on FanDuel this week.
Not a good week on FanDuel as both lineups had issues, especially our cash lineup (left). Wilson was a HUGE disappointment, which trickled down to Baldwin. New England never really got going on offense, negatively affecting Edelman and Bennett and Fitzgerald suffered as a result of Palmer having a bad game. There were a couple bright spots scattered across the lineups (Johnson, Giants DST) but way too many misses. Let’s see if we can remedy that in week 13.
History suggests if we can hit 2X value overall on FanDuel, you will cash approximately 85% of the time. With a $60,000 budget to build our team, that means our target should be 120 total points. So, how can we maximize our chances of reaching that magic number? Let’s take a look at some players who should eclipse that 2X value threshold and get us on our way.
Russell Wilson, QB, Seattle Seahawks ($7,700, 20.3 projected points)
Wilson was in this spot last week and he let us down in a big way in what looked to be a favorable matchup against Tampa Bay. Wilson only managed 151 passing yards and tossed two INTs, but he did run for 80 yards to partially salvage the day. The rushing yards indicate he is over whatever ailments he was suffering and brings the added running element back that is key to his fantasy success. Carolina isn’t quite as favorable a matchup, but they are still beatable. I expect Wilson to bounce back this week and have a nice return for his fantasy owners.
David Johnson, RB, Arizona Cardinals ($9,200, 24.3 projected points)
There is a chance Johnson stays in this spot the rest of the season with the way he’s been playing and his role in Arizona’s offense. Johnson has been held below 60 yards rushing in three of his last four games, but has still averaged 24.1 FD points over that span because he is so involved in the passing game. Johnson has a nose for the end zone and is on the field for nearly every offensive snap, meaning even at his high price, he is arguably the best value on the board this week.
Julio Jones, WR, Atlanta Falcons ($8,300, 17.4 projected points)
Atlanta is leading the NFL in scoring this season, and much of that can be traced back to Matt Ryan and his receiving corps. Taylor Gabriel is going to be the hot name this week after he exploded for two TDs last week, but Jones carries the higher floor and sees the majority of targets when Ryan drops to throw. The Kansas City secondary is decent, but there are too many weapons to stop them all. We’ve seen Jones put up the top fantasy score of the year already with his 300-yard performance in week four, so the upside is certainly there but so is his floor.
Utilizing these players, and remembering our goals of 120 total points and players with consistently high floors, we could put together a lineup consisting of the following.
|DEF||New England Patriots||$4,600||13.1|
Stacking Wilson and Baldwin is a nice play in a favorable matchup for Seattle and should continue to be a productive pairing for another week. David Johnson has to be considered nearly a must-start every week as he drives Arizona’s offense. Fitzgerald has been Carson Palmer’s only reliable target and should get plenty of opportunities in what should be a high scoring game against Atlanta. Monitor the news surrounding Gronk’s availability as that will impact Bennett’s numbers if he should play. A viable alternative to Bennett would be C.J. Fiedorowicz that wouldn’t require reworking any of the other players.
The draw for these big tournaments isn’t simply to make it above the money cut line, but to turn a small entry fee into a big win. As such, the focus shifts to players with a higher upside than those in our cash games lineup, but also more risk to have a bad game. Also, we want to go a little “off the grid” and find players that will be owned by a smaller percentage of entrants. Let’s see if we can find a few players that could push us toward the top of the leaderboard in a GPP.
Ben Roethlisberger, QB, Pittsburgh Steelers ($8,300, 20.0 projected points)
Roethlisberger is a viable DFS option most weeks, but he excels when playing at home. We all know how much better Drew Brees is at home, and he’ll be very highly owned this weekend, but Roethlisberger is nearly on par with Brees. The good thing this week is we’ll get Roethlisberger at a discounted ownership because most will flock to Brees and his juicy matchup with the Lions. You should get similar production (we’re projected Brees to score about three more FD points) but at a $1,000 discount and a lower ownership, which is important for making noise in GPPs.
Spencer Ware, RB, Kansas City Chiefs ($7,400, 15.3 projected points)
Ware has been the workhorse RB for the Chiefs this season, averaging nearly 18 touches a game, but has struggled to find the end zone, being held without a TD since week six. We’ve already established Atlanta possesses a potent offense and leads the NFL in scoring, but the best defense against a good offense is keeping that offense off the field. Ware should be leaned on to control the clock and will be one of Alex Smith’s primary outlets to keep the chains moving. If Ware can end his scoring drought, he should easily hit GPP value with the workload we project for him.
Brandin Cooks, WR, New Orleans Saints ($6,800, 12.8 projected points)
Many players of DFS suffer from recency bias. In other words, “what have you done for me lately?” In the case of Cooks, he did absolutely nothing last week, seeing zero targets from Drew Brees. Many owners were burned by Cooks last week, depressing his ownership heading into this week. However, Brees is almost a lock for 300+ yards and 3-4 TDs this week playing a mediocre Detroit defense at home. Michael Thomas seems to have captured the #1 WR role, but Cooks will certainly be a part of the gameplan this week, and possibly a large part. One or two big plays and Cooks is at value, and Cooks has shown he only needs a handful of catches to hit 20 FD points.
Here is what one of my lineups will look like this week, including the players I listed above.
|DEF||New England Patriots||$4,600||13.1|
We’re getting shares of several potent offenses this week (Pittsburgh, Atlanta, New Orleans) which should help to increase our floor. Pairing them with guys like Quick and Kelce on teams that rely on the short passing game will help push our total slightly higher. This lineup has the potential to score a lot of points quickly, but could find itself on the wrong side of the money line if our projected game scripts are wrong.
Thanks for checking out the latest edition of the Daily Dose. We’ll schedule another appointment for next Saturday and see how we did in week 13. Best of luck!