The Daily Dose – FanDuel
By Bryan Sweet, DFW Senior Writer and Co-Owner, @FantasyFreakDFW
Welcome to your DFS Daily Dose. If you’re new to the scene, I suggest you read this post to get a general overview of what we’re going to be talking about in this article every week. Once you’ve finished getting caught up, rejoin us as we look back at the week that was and also for some strategy for taking down both cash games and GPPs on FanDuel this week.
We got back to our winning ways last week, thanks to a solid effort all around from our lineups. In the cash game lineup, the biggest detractor was DGB, but he was hurt and didn’t return. For the GPP lineup, Quick and Lambo let us down, but not enough to keep us from cashing. Both lineups cashed and we’re going to try and carry that momentum into week 14.
History suggests if we can hit 2X value overall on FanDuel, you will cash approximately 85% of the time. With a $60,000 budget to build our team, that means our target should be 120 total points. So, how can we maximize our chances of reaching that magic number? Let’s take a look at some players who should eclipse that 2X value threshold and get us on our way.
Andrew Luck, QB, Indianapolis Colts ($8,200, 21.3 projected points)
There are three or four viable options for your cash game QB this week, but I’m spending up a little and going with Luck. He’s going to be involved in a division game in which the loser might well be eliminated from playoff contention. I think that motivation will push him to hitting value again. Oh, by the way, did you see the game Monday night against the Colts? Yeah, Luck might be rounding into pre-injury form and that is bad for Houston but good for DFS players.
David Johnson, RB, Arizona Cardinals ($9,700, 23.8 projected points)
I said it last week, but until they start pricing this guy according to his involvement in Arizona’s offense, I’m going to keep rolling him out there. Johnson has shown to be nearly matchup-proof and is involved in every facet of the offense. The good thing about rostering Johnson is you don’t have to worry about his workload depending on the score of the game. If Arizona is ahead, he’ll be running out the clock. If they are behind, he’ll be heavily involved in the short passing game. Plug him in and forget it for another week.
Antonio Brown, WR, Pittsburgh Steelers ($8,800, 18.0 projected points)
This pick is more of a gut feel than anything I can back up with stats. I can say that Brown has seen his targets dip the last two weeks (six in week 12 and seven last week), but he’s scored four TDs and compiled 145 yards on those targets. He is still one of Ben Roethlisberger’s top targets when nearing the end zone and has the playmaking ability to score from anywhere on the field. I think he finds the end zone again this week and approaches 100 receiving yards, getting him to our 2X value threshold for cash games.
Utilizing these players, and remembering our goals of 120 total points and players with consistently high floors, we could put together a lineup consisting of the following.
We’re expecting the Steelers to score some points this week with both Bell and Brown in our lineup. In order to get so many high-dollar guys in there, we had to find some value at the WR position and Gabriel and Ginn are explosive players who can hit value on one big play. McDonald has been a favorite target of Colin Kaepernick, and has the athletic ability to turn a short catch into a long gain. The Vikings defense has seen a price drop recently and gets Blake Bortles and the Jaguars this week. Yes, please.
The draw for these big tournaments isn’t simply to make it above the money cut line, but to turn a small entry fee into a big win. As such, the focus shifts to players with a higher upside than those in our cash games lineup, but also more risk to have a bad game. Also, we want to go a little “off the grid” and find players that will be owned by a smaller percentage of entrants. Let’s see if we can find a few players that could push us toward the top of the leaderboard in a GPP.
Bryce Petty, QB, New York Jets ($6,100, 14.6 projected points)
Before you completely dismiss this selection, hear me out. First, Petty gets one of the worst defenses in the NFL in week 14 in the San Francisco 49ers. Second, Petty has multiple weapons in the passing game, including at RB and big WRs. Third, he’s had a full week to prepare as the starter, which should translate to better production than we saw in a half last week. Speaking of that half last week, despite throwing two INTs, he still finished with 7.6 FD points. At site minimum, he should flirt with 3X value and his salary gives us a lot of flexibility as well.
DeMarco Murray, RB, Tennessee Titans ($7,900, 17.6 projected points)
Murray is going to be the centerpiece of Tennessee’s offense this week as Marcus Mariota will be facing the toughest secondary he’s seen this season. With Houston and Indianapolis facing off this week, the Titans will need a win to keep pace with whoever wins that game, so it would make sense to shorten the game and give Murray a heavy workload. Also, Murray has the luxury of coming off a BYE last week, giving him fresher legs than normal. If this game gets out of hand, Murray is also heavily involved in the passing game, so it shouldn’t hurt his value much.
Brandon Marshall, WR, New York Jets ($7,200, 11.4 projected points)
If we’re leaning on Petty to be our GPP QB, why not look to a WR from his team as well? Now, I know Robby Anderson drew a lot of attention from Petty last week, but Marshall is far and away the better WR and Petty should look his way often this week. Marshall has been up and down this season, but this is too favorable a matchup to expect him to be held out of the end zone unless Petty has a terrible game, in which this lineup is doomed anyways.
Here is what one of my lineups will look like this week, including the players I listed above.
This lineup will probably live and die by the Petty-Marshall stack, if we’re being honest. I love the value at the other WR positions and Bell is much like David Johnson, only cheaper. Brate has become a weapon in Tamp Bay’s passing game and should be able to reach value on opportunity alone. Bailey and Minnesota are the best values at their respective positions.
Thanks for checking out the latest edition of the Daily Dose. We’ll schedule another appointment for next Saturday and see how we did in week 14. Best of luck!