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The Daily Dose – FanDuel


By Bryan Sweet, DFW Senior Writer and Co-Owner, @FantasyFreakDFW

Welcome to your DFS Daily Dose.  If you’re new to the scene, I suggest you read this post to get a general overview of what we’re going to be talking about in this article every week.  Once you’ve finished getting caught up, rejoin us as we look back at the week that was and also for some strategy for taking down both cash games and GPPs on FanDuel this week.

LAST WEEK

Bell tried to will our cash game lineup into the money last week, but we just couldn’t overcome the early injury to McDonald and the bad game from Ginn.  Depending on the contest, our GPP lineup did cash, but barely.  Again, Bell carried this lineup but got some help from Sanders and a very low owned Bryce Petty.  Let’s see if we can increase our winning percentage from 50% to 100% heading into week 15.

CASH GAMES

History suggests if we can hit 2X value overall on FanDuel, you will cash approximately 85% of the time.  With a $60,000 budget to build our team, that means our target should be 120 total points.  So, how can we maximize our chances of reaching that magic number?  Let’s take a look at some players who should eclipse that 2X value threshold and get us on our way.

Matt Ryan, QB, Atlanta Falcons ($8,500, 20.4 projected points)
There have been some absolute truths in DFS this season, one of which is start your QB against the 49ers.  For the season, San Francisco has given up an average of 18.9 FD points per game to opposing QBs, and that includes Matt Barkley’s 7.98 performance from week 13 and Case Keenum’s 4.20 in week one.  The biggest concern is the blowout threat as Atlanta is nearly a two TD favorite.  The absence of Julio Jones dings Ryan a bit, but the matchup is too good for it to have a considerable impact.  Ryan doesn’t have the upside to trust him in GPPs, but he should easily reach cash game value before turning things over to Matt Schaub.

Le’Veon Bell, RB, Pittsburgh Steelers ($9,400, 22.9 projected points)
There are two guys at the RB position that about just about guarantees in DFS, and they are David Johnson and Bell.  Both are heavily involved in their team’s offensive gameplan and contribute in the passing game, increasing their fantasy stats.  Bell vastly outperformed Johnson last week, so his ownership will probably see an uptick this week, but he gives us a $400 discount over Johnson and we are projecting the two for a nearly identical statline.  Honestly, that salary difference is the only reason Bell is in over Johnson this week, but if you like Johnson better and can save the $400 at another position, I wouldn’t have a problem with that.

Antonio Brown, WR, Pittsburgh Steelers ($8,500, 18.2 projected points)
I made the call on Brown last week, and it didn’t work out so well.  We have to have a short memory, however, in DFS and I’m going back to Brown again this week.  The Bengals have nothing to play for at this point, and while it’s a divisional matchup, I think the Steelers look sharp this week on offense and keep their foot on the gas.  Brown is capable of putting up a 30-point performance on any given week, but he still provides us with a high enough floor to consider him for our cash game lineups.  I don’t recommend going all-in on Brown, but I think he can reach value this week based on volume alone.

Utilizing these players, and remembering our goals of 120 total points and players with consistently high floors, we could put together a lineup consisting of the following.

POSITION PLAYER/TEAM SALARY  PROJECTION
QB Matt Ryan/ATL $8,500 20.4
RB Le’Veon Bell/PIT $9,400 22.9
RB Kenneth Dixon/BAL $5,100 12.8
WR Antonio Brown/PIT $8,500 18.2
WR Taylor Gabriel/ATL $5,800 12.1
WR Michael Crabtree/OAK $6,000 12.5
TE Travis Kelce/KC $6,900 13.1
K Matt Bryant/ATL $5,100 11.0
DEF Baltimore Ravens $4,700 11.6
TOTAL $60,000 134.6

Dixon seems to have seized the starting RB role for Baltimore, and his low price makes his likelihood of hitting value (10.2 FD points) pretty good, especially considering his involvement in the passing game.  Gabriel sees a bump with the absence of Julio Jones, and again should easily reach value.  Crabtree is overdue for a good game considering how good the Raiders passing attack is, and his price has plummeted in recent weeks giving us great value.  Kelce has become a de facto WR in the Chiefs offense and is hard to fade even if Jeremy Maclin returns this week.

GPPs

The draw for these big tournaments isn’t simply to make it above the money cut line, but to turn a small entry fee into a big win.  As such, the focus shifts to players with a higher upside than those in our cash games lineup, but also more risk to have a bad game.  Also, we want to go a little “off the grid” and find players that will be owned by a smaller percentage of entrants.  Let’s see if we can find a few players that could push us toward the top of the leaderboard in a GPP.

Carson Palmer, QB, Arizona Cardinals ($7,600, 17.8 projected points)
Questionable weather situations across the league make picking our GPP QB one of the most important decisions of the week.  Now, Palmer has hardly been worthy of fantasy consideration this season, but he’s going to be at home facing a New Orleans defense that has been dissected by opposing QBs this season, especially when the Saints have to travel.  On the season, New Orleans has allowed almost 20 FD points per game to opposing QBs and palmer will not be very highly owned considering his struggles this season.  Palmer should approach 3X value if the game stays close throughout.

Lamar Miller, RB, Houston Texans ($7,200, 13.3 projected points)
The Texans come into this game with the Jaguars as nearly TD-favorites and win games by running the ball effectively and playing good enough defense.  Miller is the lead back for Houston and has struggled to find the end zone despite piling up good yardage totals (1,010 yards but just four TDs).  Miller did find the end zone last week against Indianapolis and Jacksonville is just playing out the season.  Houston has all the incentive to come away with a victory and draw closer to a playoff spot.  Miller is not the “sexy” RB pick this week, but his projected low ownership and positive game script make him an ideal GPP option.

Tyrell Williams, WR, San Diego Chargers ($6,500, 12.6 projected points)
The season-ending injury to Melvin Gordon last week is going to put even more of the offensive load on Rivers’ shoulders for the rest of the season despite San Diego’s lack of playoff opportunity.  Even though, you know Rivers would LOVE to dampen the playoff aspirations of a division rival with a victory this week.  The weather won’t have any impact on this game and we’re expecting Rivers to pass upwards of 40 times.  Oakland has been burned often by “big play” WRs, and Williams fits that bill to a tee.  His discounted price allows roster flexibility and provides great value to boot.

Here is what one of my lineups will look like this week, including the players I listed above.

POSITION PLAYER/TEAM SALARY  PROJECTION
QB Carson Palmer/ARI $7,600 17.8
RB Lamar Miller/HOU $7,200 13.3
RB Le’Veon Bell/PIT $9,400 22.9
WR Tyrell Williams/SD $6,500 12.6
WR Antonio Brown/PIT $8,500 18.2
WR Michael Crabtree/OAK $6,000 12.5
TE Jermaine Gresham/ARI $4,500 7.5
K Matt Bryant/ATL $5,100 11.0
DEF Buffalo Bills $5,100 12.5
TOTAL $59,900 128.3

We’ve got a low-owned stack with Palmer and Gresham, which is interesting with the recent release of Michael Floyd and could be quite sneaky this week.  We’ve got the Pittsburgh duo in both lineups this week, which shows how much we like the Steelers this week.  Buffalo gets Cleveland, so being able to fit them in is a nice boost.

Thanks for checking out the latest edition of the Daily Dose.  We’ll schedule another appointment for next Saturday and see how we did in week 15.  Best of luck!