The Daily Dose – FanDuel
By Bryan Sweet, DFW Senior Writer and Co-Owner, @FantasyFreakDFW
Welcome to your DFS Daily Dose. If you’re new to the scene, I suggest you read this post to get a general overview of what we’re going to be talking about in this article every week. Once you’ve finished getting caught up, rejoin us as we look back at the week that was and also for some strategy for taking down both cash games and GPPs on FanDuel this week.
We’re working with a short week this week with the majority of the games on Saturday because of Christmas. As such, we’re going to forgo looking back at last week but I can tell you with absolute certainty it was BAD. I say we wash that bitter taste out of our mouth with some winning lineups. Let’s look at who we’re targeting for week 16.
History suggests if we can hit 2X value overall on FanDuel, you will cash approximately 85% of the time. With a $60,000 budget to build our team, that means our target should be 120 total points. So, how can we maximize our chances of reaching that magic number? Let’s take a look at some players who should eclipse that 2X value threshold and get us on our way.
Andrew Luck, QB, Indianapolis Colts ($8,300, 21.3 projected points)
Luck has consistently been posting numbers that get him to 2X value, or slightly better, this season which makes him the perfect cash game target. He’s not putting up the 30-40 point games needed to win tournaments, but he’s also not putting up 10-12 point clunkers which cause you to miss the cash line. Saturday, Luck gets a date with the Oakland Raiders who have been generous to opposing passers all season. Expect Luck to have another solid day and carry cash game lineups along with it.
David Johnson, RB, Arizona Cardinals ($8,700, 19.8 projected points)
Johnson has been a mainstay in this column this season because he is almost guaranteed to be involved in the offense. His role as the primary RB is enticing in games in which the Cardinals are playing with the lead and his heavy usage in the passing game keeps him involved in the offense when playing from behind. Oh, and his goal line usage is elite as evidenced by last week when he had just 53 yards but finished with a nice fantasy day due to two short TDs. With Le’Veon Bell unavailable on this slate, Johnson is a no-brainer this week.
Jordy Nelson, WR, Green Bay Packers ($7,800, 16.2 projected points)
Much like Andrew Luck above, Nelson has been as consistent as they come at the WR position recently. His rapport with Aaron Rodgers appears to be back as he has seen double-digit targets in five of his last eight games and regularly hits the magic 2X value threshold we look for in our cash game lineups. Despite the seemingly difficult matchup this week against Minnesota, Luck proved last week they are beatable through the air and Nelson figures to be a big part of Green Bay’s continued march toward the playoffs and the NFC North crown.
Utilizing these players, and remembering our goals of 120 total points and players with consistently high floors, we could put together a lineup consisting of the following.
|DEF||New England Patriots||$5,000||14.2|
Kelley’s price still hasn’t caught up with his role in Washington’s offense, so he’s a good bet to hit 2X value (11.6) or more this week based on volume alone. Crabtree and Hilton will be on opposite sides of the field Saturday in one of the higher-projected scores of the day. Both are red zone threats and find openings in the defense with the best of them. Brate has become one of Jameis Winston’s favorite targets in recent weeks and provides TD upside at the TE position.
The draw for these big tournaments isn’t simply to make it above the money cut line, but to turn a small entry fee into a big win. As such, the focus shifts to players with a higher upside than those in our cash games lineup, but also more risk to have a bad game. Also, we want to go a little “off the grid” and find players that will be owned by a smaller percentage of entrants. Let’s see if we can find a few players that could push us toward the top of the leaderboard in a GPP.
Matt Barkley, QB, Chicago Bears ($6,300, 15.7 projected points)
Despite his lack of experience, Barkley has played fairly well, all things considered. Sure, he makes mistakes a veteran QB might not make, but he’s also topped 300 yards in two of his four starts and has six passing TDs as well. His INT total is pretty high (five), but with experience comes better decision making, limiting those mistakes. Washington isn’t impossible to beat through the air and Barkley isn’t afraid to challenge a defense, so hitting 20+ points seems like a good bet this week and his salary opens up other options in our lineup.
Jay Ajayi, RB, Miami Dolphins ($6,700, 13.3 projected points)
I know Ajayi has cooled off considerably since his mid-season run of 33.2, 28.1 and 20.5 FD points, but the loss of Ryan Tannehill should shift a good portion of the offense onto his shoulders. Buffalo might be the perfect opportunity for a “get right” game as they have allowed an average of 24.2 FD points to RBs the last eight weeks. It seems reasonable Ajayi can hit 3X value (20.1 points) considering the beatdown Le’Veon Bell gave to the Buffalo defense two weeks ago (49.8 FD points).
Doug Baldwin, WR, Seattle Seahawks ($7,000, 12.7 projected points)
Baldwin is very much a hit-or-miss type player, but his hits are pretty good. Baldwin has put up games of 17, 26.9, 26 and 19.7 this season showing he has 3X value potential at any given time. Many will likely be scared off the matchup with Arizona, but they have been barely average the last few weeks against WRs allowing 39.5 FD points to the WR position. Of note, the “smaller” WRs have found considerable success against the Cardinals with Brandin Cooks (34.1), Kenny Stills (18.7) and Taylor Gabriel (24.2) headlining the group.
Here is what one of my lineups will look like this week, including the players I listed above.
|DEF||New England Patriots||$5,000||14.2|
Remember, in GPPs you often only need a couple contrarian options to finish high in the money. We’ve already discussed why we like the rest of this lineup, and if everything goes as planned this lineup could provided a nice payday.
Thanks for checking out the latest edition of the Daily Dose. We’ll schedule another appointment for next Saturday and see how we did in week 16. Best of luck!