IDP Matchup Machine 1

Written/prepared by Sean Kirby (@ScurvyIDP)

This article is fueled by data provided by

In-season start/sit decisions can make or break your fantasy season. Two important factors to consider with your IDP lineup are the home stat crew and opposing offense. Here we’ve got you covered for both. Be sure to check back later in the week, when Jay Leisten gives some must starts and must sits for the week.

Here’s what you can find here:

  1. Matchup and Home Stat Crew Modifiers by Team – Find what team your IDPs play for and see how their matchup and playing field should effect their production this week.
  2. Home Stat Crew Data – See how each home stat crew is awarding tackles and assists.  Certain home stat crews give different ratios of solos and assists.  Where one observer might award a ‘solo tackle’ another may give three ‘assists’.  This information is critical, particularly if your league doesn’t award assisted tackles.  Also, some home stat crews just find a way to award more fantasy points than others.  IDP players on those teams receive a nice bonus 8 games/year.
  3. Matchup Data – See what sort of stats IDPs tend to put up against opposing offenses.  Certain teams may give up more/fewer IDP points due to numerous variables, including game tempo and sacks allowed.

How to use this data:  A score >100% means IDPs score better than average in that situation, while a score <100% means the matchup is unfavorable. Ideally, you want to start IDPs with favorable home stat crews and matchups.  There is obviously some bleed between these two categories and if forced to pick one, the home stat crew data is probably more important/reliable.  

Week 10 Highlights: 

  • Give a little extra consideration to your New England Patriots and New York Giants.  The NYG stadium is back in action this week, with it’s stat crew generously offering 20% more fantasy points than average.  Dont’a Hightower, Devon Kennard, and Jamie Collins (Jonathan Freeny if Collins is out) make reasonable starts and there’s a chance one of them is on your WW in shallower leagues.  However, I think it’s the secondary that benefits in a game scripted through the air.  Devin McCourty, Logan Thomas, and Malcolm Butler should rack up tackles and have a decent shot at picking off Eli.  Meanwhile, Landon Collins is a decent guess to lead NYG in tackles this week and he’ll be supported by Brandon Meriweather, Jayron Hosley, and Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie.  
  • Expect a down week from your Chiefs and Titans, who boast the lowest overall modifiers.  However, I’m also nervous about tackle volumes for the Panthers, as they square off against the Titans.  While this game could be sack-heavy, they play in front of the stingiest active stat crew in Tennessee.  Studs should still be relied on, but a down week is in order.  
  • If you’re looking for a sack, look to the Steelers, Panthers, Broncos, and Cardinals, who face the Browns, Titans, Chiefs, and Seahawks.  All four teams allow >3 sacks per week.  That means Kawann Short and Malik Jackson need to be in your lineup.  You can also consider Stephon Tuitt, Cameron Heyward, an Calais Campbell good starts this week. More desperate owners can grab Frostee Rucker and Mario Addison off the WW for a start this week.  Owners in big play leagues can plug Von Miller and Bud Dupree into a LB spot.  Thomas Davis is also a very strong start in all leagues and has gotten to the QB 3 times on the year.
  • If your league doesn’t award assists, stay away from the Seahawks, Cardinals, Jets, and Bills, who play in very assist-heavy stadiums this week.  The heaviest solo stat crews have the weekend off, with stadiums empty in Chicago, Miami, Kansas City, Minnesota, Philadelphia, and San Francisco.  So that means playing IDPs in almost any other stadium is the best you can do.

  • Caveat #1: These parameters only measure Tackles and Assists (Home Stat Crews) and Tackles, Assists, and Sacks (Matchup), as these are the variables that will show the most predictable trends. IDPs relying on “Big Plays”, like interceptions, fumbles, and touchdowns will not be adequately represented here.

***These numbers are based on the following scoring; 1.5 pt/tackle, 0.75 pt/assist, 4 pt/sack.***