IDP Matchup Machine 1

Written/prepared by Sean Kirby (@ScurvyIDP)

This article is fueled by data provided by

In-season start/sit decisions can make or break your fantasy season. Two important factors to consider with your IDP lineup are the home stat crew and opposing offense. Here we’ve got you covered for both. Be sure to check back later in the week, when Jay Leisten gives some must starts and must sits for the week.

Here’s what you can find here:

  1. Matchup and Home Stat Crew Modifiers by Team – Find what team your IDPs play for and see how their matchup and playing field should effect their production this week.
  2. Home Stat Crew Data – See how each home stat crew is awarding tackles and assists.  Certain home stat crews give different ratios of solos and assists.  Where one observer might award a ‘solo tackle’ another may give three ‘assists’.  This information is critical, particularly if your league doesn’t award assisted tackles.  Also, some home stat crews just find a way to award more fantasy points than others.  IDP players on those teams receive a nice bonus 8 games/year.
  3. Matchup Data – See what sort of stats IDPs tend to put up against opposing offenses.  Certain teams may give up more/fewer IDP points due to numerous variables, including game tempo and sacks allowed.

How to use this data:  A score >100% means IDPs score better than average in that situation, while a score <100% means the matchup is unfavorable. Ideally, you want to start IDPs with favorable home stat crews and matchups.  There is obviously some bleed between these two categories and if forced to pick one, the home stat crew data is probably more important/reliable.  

Week 10 Highlights: 

  • Give a little extra consideration to your Chiefs, Chargers, Eagles, and Buccaneers An 8% home stat crew is not something to scoff.  However, keep in mind all of these bonuses are being skewed by the completely ridiculous NYG home stat crew (121%), who have the week off.    An 8% home stat crew bonus, means the SD home stat crew are awarding 13 extra fantasy points, if using the relatively minimal scoring outlined here (1.5 pts/tkl, 0.75 pts/sk).  It’s also important to keep in mind that these home stat crew bonuses are based only on tackles and INTs.  Regardless, you can expect a few extra points from tackles for all players in these games.  That means Kwon Alexander and Lavonte David should be in all lineups, along with Mychal Kendricks, who is the only PHI LB to trust for the time being.  It’s not clear that the Chiefs and Chargers have a true every down LB, but you could do worse than Donald Butler and and Derrick Johnson
  • Expect a down week from your Bears and Broncos. With regard to tackles/assists, the Bears home stat crew is giving away 9% fewer IDP pts than average.  At this point in the season, Chicago has very firmly declared itself as the worst stadium for IDP points.  On average, the stadium is allowing 49 fewer IDP points than the NYG crew.  While the number is substantial, keep in mind it’s based on relatively minimal scoring (1.5 pts/tkl and 0.75 pts/asst). That disadvantage is magnified in leagues with higher IDP stakes.
  • If you’re looking for a sack, the Seahawks, 49ers, and Chargers all face off against teams allowing >3 per game.  That means it’s time to fire up Michael Bennett and Cliff Avril without any doubt.  Unfortunately, the Chargers and 49ers don’t have many DL you can trust to get at the QB.  However, Aaron Lynch is a great play at LB in leagues sack heavy leagues and even balanced leagues.  He’s posted a very nice 6 sacks and 13 QB hits and will face off against the Seahawks, who are the only team allowing >3.5 sacks per game this week.  Similarly, Bruce Irvin is an OK start at LB if you’re fishing for a sack-master rather than a volume tackler.  Dallas, New England, and Tennessee also square off against teams that have had trouble protecting their QBs (MIA, BUF, and JAX all allow 3 sacks per game).  Greg Hardy, Chandler Jones, and even Jurrell Casey are no brainers, while desperation plays might include Jabaal Sheard, Rob Ninkovich, and Tyrone Crawford.  LBs seeking sacks in those games will include Jamie Collins, Brian Orakpo, Dont’a Hightower, Derrick Morgan, and Wesley Woodyard.
  • If your league doesn’t award assists, sit your Panthers, Redskins, Seahawks, and 49ers. Those 4 teams are playing in stadiums that award a disproportionate number of assists, which means vanishing points in leagues that neglect them.  Instead, you can opt for Dolphins, Cowboys, Eagles, Bucanneers, Vikings, and Packers, who all play in front of very solo-heavy stat crews.

  • Caveat #1: These parameters only measure Tackles and Assists (Home Stat Crews) and Tackles, Assists, and Sacks (Matchup), as these are the variables that will show the most predictable trends. IDPs relying on “Big Plays”, like interceptions, fumbles, and touchdowns will not be adequately represented here.

***These numbers are based on the following scoring; 1.5 pt/tackle, 0.75 pt/assist, 4 pt/sack.***