peyton Using ADP: Evaluating The Steals That Can Be Had In Your Startup DraftBy: Luke Grilli (@LGrilli88)

An awesome tool that can be found at Dynasty Football Warehouse is the Dynasty Startup Average Draft Position (ADP). By digging into ADP, you get an idea where a player will land in your startup draft. While it’s not a perfect science, ADP can be used to develop a strategy and guide you through your draft. Using ADP, you can ask yourself whether or not you should grab a QB  like Aaron Rodgers in Round 2, knowing that Drew Brees or Tom Brady can be had around Round 4 or 5. (Hint: it IS worth it to wait!)

To help you develop a strategy, I took a look at the results from our first eight drafts. From now until training camp, I’m sure these positions will change, but this will give you an idea as to what gems you should keep an eye on.

ADP is based on a 12 team standard PPR League.

Round 1 ADP
1.01 Trent Richardson
1.02 Doug Martin
1.03 Calvin Johnson
1.04 Arian Foster
1.05 Adrian Peterson
1.06 Ray Rice
1.07 AJ Green
1.08 LeSean McCoy
1.09 Julio Jones
1.10 CJ Spiller
1.11 Jamaal Charles
1.12 Dez Bryant
My choice for best pick in Round 1, based on ADP, is CJ Spiller with Jamaal Charles coming in right behind him. I have made it known that I would love to have a start up draft in 2013 due to the talent available in the 1st and 2nd rounds. The depth, especially at RB, in the 1st round (my preferred position to draft in the 1st) is unlike any I can remember from the past few years. At the end of the 1st Round, Spiller will provide you with a lightning rod to be your RB1 over the next 5 years. The injury to Fred Jackson (and the fact that F. Jax is 32), allowed for Spiller to finally get the lion’s share of the carries. Durability has been a concern with Spiller during his first two years in the league, but after getting stronger as the year progressed and amassing over 1,700 yards from scrimmage, Spiller proved the naysayers wrong. We have seen the beginning of a brilliant career from CJ Spiller.

Round 2 ADP
2.01 Aaron Rodgers
2.02 Marshawn Lynch
2.03 Demaryius Thomas
2.04 Alfred Morris
2.05 Brandon Marshall
2.06 Rob Gronkowski
2.07 Jimmy Graham
2.08 Percy Harvin
2.09 Randall Cobb
2.10 Matt Forte
2.11 Darren McFadden
2.12 David Wilson
At first glance, I thought Percy Harvin would be my choice here. Harvin was on pace for a career year in 2012 before an ankle injury and pissy attitude put him on the shelf for the rest of the season. With that being said, Randall Cobb’s sophomore 2012 season essentially mirrored what Harvin was able to accomplish in his 3rd year as a pro in 2011. Cobb has upside in dynasty leagues because he is 2 years Harvin’s junior and will play the same role as Harvin, but with Aaron Rodgers throwing him the ball in the pass happy Green Bay Packers offense. Cobb’s value is sky high right now and rightfully so. With Greg Jennings leaving for Minnesota and Cobb only carving himself a larger role as a rusher and trusted receiver (80 catches on 104 targets? Stupidly efficient), I like the 3rd year WR out of Kentucky in 2013 and beyond.

Round 3 ADP
3.01 Cam Newton
3.02 Chris Johnson
3.03 Michael Crabtree
3.04 DeMarco Murray
3.05 Victor Cruz
3.06 Andrew Luck
3.07 Hakeem Nicks
3.08 Larry Fitzgerald
3.09 Aaron Hernandez
3.10 Maurice Jones-Drew
3.11 Andre Johnson
3.12 Stevan Ridley
I’m flabbergasted trying to figure out why anyone would draft Chris Johnson, injury prone DeMarco Murray and the aging MJD over Stevan Ridley. In Ridley’s first crack at the starting job he merely put up 1200+ rushing yards and double digit touchdowns. Sure, he is uninvolved in the passing game, but so was Michael Turner in his prime. The Burner worked out OK for most fantasy owners. I can understand why someone would pass on Ridley for a WR or QB. Maybe they went RB-RB, RB-QB or RB-WR in the first two rounds? However, at this juncture in the draft, the 24 year old Ridley is the best you’re gonna get and produce like a low end RB1/high end RB2 for the next 3-4 years.

Round 4 ADP
4.01 Roddy White
4.02Eric Decker
4.03 Jordy Nelson
4.04 Justin Blackmon
4.05 Drew Brees
4.06 Colin Kaepernick
4.07 Vincent Jackson
4.08 Darren Sproles
4.09 Wes Welker
4.10 Torrey Smith
4.11 Mike Wallace
4.12 Eddie Lacy  (R)
Drew Brees simply wins fantasy owners championships. At this point in the draft, drafting Brees gives you an elite QB to paired with (hopefully) a combination of upper echelon WRs and/or RBs taken in Rounds 1, 2 and 3. While getting up there in years (age 34), Brees may be a dinosaur compared to Colin Kaepernick or Robert Griffin III, but personally I would like to draft the elite guy and worry about his long term replacement later. Over the next 3-4 years, what will Kaep and RG3 give you? They have the potential to put up solid fantasy numbers, but injuries and defenses focusing on the pistol could hurt their value. Drew Brees comes in year after year and produces QB1 numbers. I’ll take that over potential any day of the week.

Round 5 ADP
5.01 Ryan Mathews
5.02 RG3
5.03 Pierre Garcon
5.04 Matt Ryan
5.05 Dwayne Bowe
5.06 Marques Colston
5.07 Antonio Brown
5.08 Tom Brady
5.09 Giovani Bernard (R)
5.10 Jeremy Maclin
5.11 Matthew Stafford
5.12 Mikel LeShoure
Following Stafford’s monster 2011 season he underwhelmed and those who used a high draft pick on him in 2012 cursed the fantasy gods. If you take a look at the numbers, yardage is the same, but the TDs well way off from 41 in 2011 to 20 in 2012. Playing from behind a ton, Stafford chucked the ball 727 times (!!!!!!!!!!!!!) and it is a miracle that his arm hasn’t fallen off by now. So, why is he a better option in the 5th round over players like Matt Ryan and Tom Brady? 2 reasons…1) Stafford is still just 25 and 2) Calvin Johnson. I think that with Reggie Bush coming to town (more on that later) and an improved team around him, Stafford should be able to have 2011’s success in the near future.

Round 6 ADP
6.01 Frank Gore
6.02 Lamar Miller
6.03 Greg Jennings
6.04 Josh Gordon
6.05 Russell Wilson
6.06 Jonathan Stewart
6.07 Jason Witten
6.08 Reggie Wayne
6.09 Kenny Britt
6.10 Cecil Shorts
6.11 Stevie Johnson
6.12 Reggie Bush
A Lion mentioned in Round 5 and now one mentioned in Round 6. I love the move of Reggie Bush to the Lions. In my winners and losers of free agency write up, I mentioned that Detroit will be a place where Bush can thrive as an RB1/RB2 due to their pass happy offense (727 attempts!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!). In Round 6, a guy who can put up RB1 numbers is hard to come by. You could get this from Reggie Bush over the next 2-3 years.

Round 7 ADP
7.01 Cordarelle Patterson
7.02 Mark Ingram
7.03 TY Hilton
7.04 Ronnie Hillman
7.05 Vernon Davis
7.06 Kyle Rudolph
7.07 Miles Austin
7.08 Peyton Manning
7.09 Danario Alexander
7.10 Vick Ballard
7.11 Montee Ball (R)
7.12 Kendall Wright
This was a tough one, but I had to go with Peyton Manning here. Like Drew Brees, Manning’s window is closing quickly, but he can still lead you to a fantasy championship for the next 1-2 years. Getting Manning in the middle of the 7th round is absolute highway robbery and goes to show you the depth at QB in the fantasy world. Words of wisdom would be, “DO NOT DRAFT A QB EARLY IN 2013!!!”. In a 12 team league, the QB5 from 2012 is getting drafted as the QB11. Worry about the future of your QB position later and win now with Peyton Manning.

Round 8 ADP
8.01 Keenan Allen (R)
8.02 Jacquizz Rodgers
8.03 Marcus Lattimore (R)
8.04 Tony Romo
8.05 Mike Williams
8.06 Steven Jackson
8.07 Danny Amendola
8.08 Steve Smith (CAR)
8.09 Ahmad Bradshaw
8.10 James Jones
8.11 Alshon Jeffery
8.12 DeSean Jackson
Even if Danny Amendola is only able to put up 80% of what Welker’s stats, he still has value in the 5th round…let alone the 8th round.  Injuries are a major concern here and I’m sure his ADP will sky rocket to the 5th or 6th round as we get closer to the season, but for now he is coming in at 8.07. I think that Amendola is more the victim of flukey injuries and I’m optimistic that New England will be a fresh start for him. Playing the same role as Welker in New England’s offense (but a bit faster), the sky is the limit for Amendola. While 100 catches is not out of the realm of possibility, I expect a consistent stat line right around  85/1050/6 for 2013 and beyond.

Other Notable Players To Keep Your Eye On
9.06 Michael Floyd
Carson Palmer is coming to town and there will be a lot of attention on Larry Fitzgerald. Right time for Floyd to break out.
11.02 Eli Manning
2012 was a tough year for the Giants, but Victor Cruz, a healthy Hakeem Nicks and new weapon Brandon Myers should bring Eli back over 4,000 yards
12.01 Tavon Austin
I’m not usually high on rookies but I think Austin will have a great career as a slot receiver in the NFL.
13.10 Martellus Bennett
Now with the Bears, I like Bennett to be a red zone threat in Chicago’s offense
16.09 Michael Vick
2012 may have been the year of Foles, but 2013 will be the year of Vick. In Chip Kelly’s offense, I think Vick will be the starter and take off from Day 1.
19.08 Danny Woodhead
Ryan Mathews is made of glass and Ronnie Brown is over the hill. Woodhead should have a bigger role in SD than he ever did in NE.
20.02 Dexter McCluster
Shot in the dark, but I think that Andy Reid does special things with McCluster in 2013. He is on my list of targets this off season.

Well that’s that. If you have any questions or comments on this article, a past article, ADP or fantasy football let it be known in the comments or hit me up on Twitter (@LGrilli88)